| Summary of views of soda ash organization |
| Futures company |
Core view |
| Nanhua futures |
By August 29th, 2024, the inventory of soda ash this week was 1,218,800 tons, from Monday to 0.72 million tons, and from last Thursday to 0.39 million tons. In the short-term rhythm, the reduction of supply will continue, and the static balance will be tight or even gap, resulting in destocking. Soda is exploring new cost support. |
| Galaxy futures |
The domestic soda ash market is weak, and the price center of gravity moves down in a narrow range. Recently, the maintenance of enterprises has continued, and the start-up and output have declined. The fundamentals of soda ash have not improved significantly, and the pattern of oversupply remains the same. The price of soda ash fluctuated mainly in the short term. Arbitrage: 1-5 anti-set opportunity to enter. |
| Xingye futures |
With the expansion of soda production capacity and the slowdown of demand growth, the long-term price center of gravity will move down. Short-term maintenance leads to supply contraction, traditional peak season and low disk valuation, which may support the price of soda ash in the short term. Strategically, soda ash 09 contract takes profit, and 01 contract is patiently held. |
| Yongan research |
Soda soda futures were flat in the day and weak in the night, with low basis and high spread in September/January; Strategy: soda ash air distribution, glass air distribution. |
| Sdic Anxin futures |
Friday night’s market fell sharply. The accumulation trend slowed down last week. Zhou Du’s output fell to 673,500 tons month-on-month. At the beginning of September, three large factories planned to overhaul, and at the same time, an alkali plant resumed production, which is expected to start to maintain oscillating operation. Photovoltaic output continues to decline, and heavy soda just needs to be reduced. At present, the glass industry continues to accumulate, and there is still a cold repair expectation in the future, which has become a negative point for soda ash. At the end of the month, the downstream low-priced goods will be replenished, but it is expected to last for a short time. The supply chain has eased to some extent, but it is not obvious, and the year-on-year increase is obvious. The downstream demand is weak and the drive is still insufficient. |
| Shen Yin wanguo |
Pay attention to the drive of consumption in the market outlook and the adjustment of upstream supply. From a medium-term perspective, observe the effects of changes in real estate policies. The market outlook pays attention to the process of supply and demand adjustment, especially the adjustment degree of supply side and inventory changes. |
| Zhengxin futures |
Short-term partial overhaul and improved shipping margin have slowed down the accumulation of soda plants, but the absolute inventory is still high. Recently, the disk surface has stabilized slightly but the support is expected to be limited. Under the expectation of future supply improvement, the medium-and long-term trend of soda ash has not changed. However, 01 can be traded for a long time and some valuations have been digested in the early stage, and the subsequent tradable logic has increased, and the decline may not be smooth. |
| Hongye futures |
After the soda ash disk bounced back, it was suppressed again, and the first line of 1600 was under pressure. The maintenance of the enterprise continued, and the supply was low. During the week, the output of soda ash was 673,500 tons, a decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous month. Both downstream float and photovoltaic production lines are expected to be repaired by cooling water. |