
Cartography: Bian Jihong (Xinhua News Agency)

Recently, a batch of high-quality molten steel in the production line of Anhui Masteel Special Steel Company was ready for casting. In March, the company’s fine special steel output reached 82,000 tons, and the sales volume of key products increased against the trend. Photo by Luo Jisheng (Image China)
● The long-term fundamentals of China’s economy have not changed: the "wind vane" is improving, and the recovery trend is expected to continue; The "rice bag" is sufficient, and there is no panic in the hands of food; Strong adaptability, complete and resilient industrial system; The fundamentals remain unchanged, and China’s economy is full of vitality and potential.
● The main economic indicators improved significantly in March, which was hard-won. Thanks to the concerted efforts to promote epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, we persisted in epidemic prevention and control, and economic development remained unshakable: risk prevention had the first hand, and macro-control was brilliant; Turning crisis into machine display ability, enterprises break through and fight for wisdom; Poverty alleviation is not relaxed, and a comprehensive well-off society has quality.
On April 17th, at the press conference of the State Council Office, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that after preliminary accounting, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was 20,650.4 billion yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year at comparable prices. "The main economic indicators declined significantly in the first quarter, but in March, the main economic indicators showed an upward trend, and the decline was significantly narrowed. Despite the severe impact of the epidemic, the basic livelihood of 1.4 billion people has been well guaranteed, the overall economic and social situation is stable, and the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development has achieved remarkable results. " Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
Take a comprehensive view
China has better controlled the epidemic, but it has to pay some short-term economic costs; The global economy and trade have fallen sharply, and it is difficult for China to be immune to it.
GDP dropped by 6.8% year-on-year. What do you think?
The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has brought unprecedented impact on China’s economic and social development. Under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, the whole country has taken the most comprehensive, thorough and strict prevention and control measures, resolutely curbed the spread of the epidemic, and effectively protected the lives and health of the people.
"The Party Central Committee insists on putting people’s life safety and physical health first. In a relatively short period of time, it has better controlled the epidemic, reduced millions of infections and saved the lives of a large number of compatriots. Of course, it has to pay some short-term economic costs." Mao Shengyong said, "We can’t simply compare this year’s economic growth with conventional years."
Looking at the economic data in an all-round way, we should also see that the global economy and trade have fallen sharply, and it is difficult for China to be immune to it. At present, the epidemic has spread in more than 200 countries and regions, and global cross-border investment, trade in goods and personnel exchanges have been greatly reduced.
Recently, international institutions have lowered their economic growth expectations this year. The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade will plummet by 13% to 32% this year, and the global economic growth rate will drop by at least 2.5%. The International Monetary Fund has made the biggest downward adjustment in the history of global economic growth this year. It is predicted that the global economy will shrink by 3% this year, which is the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s, while China’s economic growth rate is 1.2%, which is one of the few positive growth rates among the world’s major economies.
Dialectical view
With the improvement of epidemic prevention and control, the resumption of work and production is gradually approaching or reaching the normal level, and the main economic indicators improved significantly in March.
Dialectically, despite the negative economic growth in the first quarter, with the improvement of epidemic prevention and control, the resumption of work and production is gradually approaching or reaching normal levels, and the main economic indicators improved significantly in March.
Spring ploughing is smooth and full of food. In the first quarter, the added value of agriculture (planting) increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the overall growth of winter wheat was better than that of the previous year and normal years. The output of eggs and milk increased by more than 4%, and the output of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry was 18.13 million tons.
Industrial production resumed quickly. In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 8.4% year-on-year. Among them, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year-on-year in March, a decrease of 1-mdash; In February, it narrowed sharply by 12.4 percentage points, and the output level of enterprises above designated size basically returned to the same period last year. Of the 41 industrial sectors, 90% have a monthly added value ratio of 1-mdash; It accelerated in February, with 40% of the industries growing year-on-year; Judging from the statistics of more than 600 major industrial products, the output of about 40% industrial products increased year-on-year.
Resume work, speed up employment and stabilize employment. In the first quarter, 2.29 million people were newly employed in cities and towns nationwide. In March, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from February; Among them, 25-mdash; The survey unemployment rate of the 59-year-old population is 5.4%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the national urban survey unemployment rate and 0.2 percentage points lower than last month. "Despite the severe impact of the epidemic, there have been no large-scale layoffs in the country, and the employment situation is generally stable." Mao Shengyong said.
Adequate supply and stable prices. In March, CPI rose by 4.3% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from last month; The increase of CPI in the first quarter was 4.9%, compared with 1-mdash; It fell by 0.3 percentage points in February. "The decline in consumer price increases shows that food supply is relatively abundant and social logistics is relatively smooth." Mao Shengyong said.
In the long run
The long-term positive fundamentals of China’s economy have not changed. The economy in the second quarter is expected to be significantly better than that in the first quarter. If the global epidemic situation is well controlled, the second half will be better than the first half.
"The epidemic is a public health emergency, and its impact on the economy is short-term and generally controllable. The long-term fundamentals of China’s economy have not changed." Mao Shengyong judged.
— — The "wind vane" is improving, and the recovery trend is expected to continue.
Electricity consumption and railway freight volume have always been regarded as economic wind vane and barometer. In March, the decline of electricity consumption in the whole society was significantly narrower than that in February, and the power generation in the whole society maintained a positive growth in the first half of April; In March, the national railway freight volume was 346 million tons, which was the same as the same period of last year and increased by 4.5% over February. In the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics invested more than 50 million yuan in 11,477 warehousing projects, an increase of 144 over the same period of last year, and the sales volume of excavators reached a record high in March.
"From the current research and understanding, a series of policies introduced in the early stage, including policy measures to help enterprises tide over the difficulties and help enterprises resume work and production, are constantly showing results." Mao Shengyong said that with the acceleration of the resumption of work and production, more vigorous policies have been continuously introduced, and the economy in the second quarter is expected to be significantly better than that in the first quarter. "If the global epidemic situation is well controlled, the second half of the year should be better than the first half."
— — There are plenty of "rice bags", and you don’t panic when you have food in your hand.
Affected by the epidemic, the food problem has recently attracted attention at home and abroad. "Chinese firmly holds the rice bowl in his own hands, and there is no problem!" Mao Shengyong introduced that in the past five years, China’s grain output was above 1.3 trillion Jin. In 2019, grain output reached a record high. China’s grain self-sufficiency rate exceeded 95% and its inventory was abundant. "In the first quarter, the grain price rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which is still generally stable. The prices in some key areas for epidemic prevention and control, including Wuhan, did not fluctuate greatly, indicating that China’s grain supply capacity is strong and the market supply and demand relationship is generally stable."
— — Strong adaptability, complete and resilient industrial system.
110 million! In one month, China’s mask production capacity has more than quadrupled.
500 thousand pieces! In about a month, the daily output of protective clothing in China will increase by about 27 times.
China has strong industrial production capacity, strong supporting facilities, and strong repair and adaptability. In the first quarter, in the high-tech manufacturing industry, investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing increased by 3.2%. In the high-tech service industry, investment in e-commerce services increased by 39.6%, investment in professional technical services increased by 36.7%, and investment in scientific and technological achievements transformation services increased by 17.4%. Investment in industries related to epidemic prevention, such as biopharmaceutical products manufacturing, maintained growth, and the construction of key epidemic prevention projects advanced rapidly. These investments not only form an effective supply to meet the needs of consumption upgrading, but also further improve the industrial structure.
"The industrial system has not been affected and the production capacity has not been affected. The social production system is sound, the production capacity is abundant, and the economic recovery capacity can be gradually released. " Mao Shengyong said.
— — The fundamentals remain unchanged, and China’s economy is full of vitality and potential.
Mao Shengyong said that the basic characteristics of China market, such as large scale, rapid growth, abundant potential and sufficient toughness, will not change. From the perspective of factor support, the industrial foundation is relatively good, the supporting capacity is relatively strong, the labor force is relatively abundant, and human capital is constantly accumulating, which can effectively support the medium and long-term economic growth. At the same time, continuously deepening reform and opening up and promoting innovation can continuously stimulate the endogenous power, potential and vitality of the economy.
lay equal emphasis on (material progress and cultural and ideological progress)
Coordinate the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and persist in the prevention and control of epidemic situation and unwavering economic development.
In March, the main economic indicators improved significantly, which was hard-won. Thanks to the concerted efforts to promote epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, we persisted in epidemic prevention and control and economic development.
— — Risk prevention has the first hand, and macro-control is brilliant.
Since the beginning of this year, the tax reduction and fee reduction have been stepped up in stages, and last year’s policy was implemented, which is expected to reduce the burden on enterprises by 1.6 trillion yuan; The central bank "issued red envelopes" three times, and targeted cuts to required reserve ratios released a total of over 1.75 trillion yuan of long-term funds; 5881 enterprises benefited from the special refinancing of 300 billion yuan. After the existing refinancing rediscount of 500 billion yuan is used up, the refinancing rediscount of small and medium-sized banks will be increased by 1 trillion yuan. As of March 24, a total of 1.46 million enterprises have enjoyed 22.2 billion yuan of stable post return … … A series of policies and measures with high gold content and strong pertinence were quickly introduced, which enabled the real economy to reduce its burden and overcome difficulties.
— — Turn crisis into machine display ability, and enterprises break through and fight for wisdom.
"Cloud" interaction, "home economy" is in full swing; Strive to be "online celebrity", live broadcast with goods to help sales counterattack; Break down the "fence", and both enterprise orders and employees can share it … … These new economic kinetic energy are all China wisdom and China strength that broke out when all walks of life overcame difficulties together.
"Although the epidemic situation is serious and the prevention and control measures are normalized, the industry has not been greatly affected, especially the new kinetic energy represented by new industries, new products and new business models has grown against the trend." Mao Shengyong said.
New industries are booming. In March, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.9%, compared with 1-mdash; It rebounded sharply by more than 20 percentage points in February. In the first quarter, the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 13.2%, driving GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points.
The new format has grown rapidly. New formats related to the Internet are active, and e-commerce, online learning and remote consultation have developed rapidly. In March, the online retail sales of social physical goods increased by 5.9%, accounting for 23.6% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the same period of last year.
The growth of new products continues unabated. In the first quarter, the output of vending machines, ticket vending machines, electronic components, integrated circuits and urban rail vehicles increased by 35.3%, 16.2%, 16.0% and 13.1% respectively.
— — Poverty alleviation is not relaxed, and a comprehensive well-off society has quality.
Despite the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, it has not been relaxed to ensure the completion of the goal and task of decisive battle to get rid of poverty and build a well-off society in an all-round way. In the first quarter, 139.6 billion yuan of central poverty alleviation funds have been released, and more than 260,000 poverty alleviation projects in 22 provinces in the central and western regions have started construction. In terms of income, the per capita disposable income of some provinces with a large number of poor people, such as Sichuan, Guangxi, Xizang, Guizhou and Qinghai, increased by 5.3%, 4.6%, 9.5%, 4.8% and 3.1% respectively in nominal terms in the first quarter, which was significantly higher than the national level. "The fight against poverty has won, and a well-off society in an all-round way will have more quality, stand the test of history and satisfy the people." Mao Shengyong said. (Reporter Lu Yanan)